The Global Decline of Skilled Auto Mechanics — and What It Means for the Future?
A View from America and Experience from Estonia
Recently, an article published in the United States described a situation where thousands of service bays stand empty — not because of a lack of equipment or spare parts, but because there is no one to work in them.
Projections speak of a shortage of hundreds of thousands of qualified automotive technicians in the coming years. Waiting times are increasing, workshops are struggling with a lack of new entrants, and the entire system faces a serious question: is the profession of the auto mechanic, as we know it, slowly fading away?
This is not only an American problem.
My 27 Years in Automotive Service
For 27 years, I ran a successful automotive service business. I built it step by step, and for me it was never just a business — it was a mission. The goal was simple: the customer had to drive away in their SAAB with a smile from ear to ear. When the car was fixed and the customer was happy, I was happy too.
The mechanics who worked for me were always paid fairly for their work. My principle was simple: better to overpay a little than to come up short.
Despite that, it became clear many years ago that finding good, professional mechanics in Estonia was — and still is — difficult.
Finnish Salaries and Estonian Reality
Between 2012 and 2019, demand rose sharply because many skilled Estonian specialists moved to Finland in search of better pay. The local market emptied quickly.
Later, some of them gradually returned — but now Finnish wage levels had become the benchmark.
The result in Estonia was:
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aggressive recruiting between workshops,
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high employee turnover,
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and a wage race that showed no signs of slowing down.
In practical terms, no matter how much you paid, there was always someone willing to offer 50 euros more.
Turnover became routine. Stability began to erode.
From an entrepreneur’s perspective, the math is simple. Labor cost is the largest expense. The higher the salary, the higher the taxes. And there is always a limit beyond which a business is no longer profitable.
If a company exists only to pay wages and survive on zero margins, entrepreneurship loses its meaning.
This closed circle was one of several reasons why I ultimately had to close my service business.
Constant Pressure on the Entrepreneur
There is another aspect that is rarely discussed: the influence of the media environment.
A radio plays in almost every workshop. Weekly news reports kept announcing how wages in Estonia were constantly rising. Indirect pressure was being applied to business owners.
Naturally, employees began asking:
“If wages are rising everywhere, why aren’t they rising here?”
It was not a malicious question. It was a fair one.
But for an entrepreneur, every salary increase means not only a higher gross wage, but also higher taxes. And when there is limited room to raise service prices, pressure builds — pressure that may not be visible from the outside, but creates very real stress for the business owner.
Changes in the Spare Parts Market
Another major shift over the past 15–20 years has been the rise of online spare parts sales.
Often, online prices are 30–40% lower than buying “over the counter.” This means customers increasingly arrive at the workshop like someone bringing their own bottle to a restaurant.
Yes, a workshop can charge a higher hourly rate for installing customer-supplied parts. But overall profitability declines because:
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revenue from spare parts sales disappears,
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labor costs remain high,
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competition limits price adjustments.
This combination makes the business model increasingly fragile.
The Computerization of the Automotive Industry
The automotive industry is moving rapidly toward computerization.
Access to brand-specific databases and software updates is often available only to dealerships or factory-affiliated businesses. The leverage is gradually shifting into the hands of official dealers.
An independent workshop faces a difficult choice: invest heavily in software and equipment or give up certain types of work.
Even relatively simple issues can remain unresolved if there is no access to reset fault codes through factory servers.
And even if access is obtained — sometimes by squeezing water from stone — it can be so expensive that it no longer makes economic sense.
The Reputation and Future of the Profession
The professions of mechanic, diagnostician, and body technician are not particularly attractive to young people today.
If there is an option to move directly from school into a warm, comfortable office where the greatest physical effort involves typing on a keyboard or lifting a coffee cup, many will choose that path.
Demand for mechanics clearly exceeds supply.
The sharper students are often “tagged” already during vocational school and move into prestigious dealerships. Smaller workshops are left in an increasingly difficult position.
Thirty-five years ago, it was commonly said that understanding how a car and engine work was part of natural masculine qualities. Today, that idea sounds almost like a legend.
Is This the Beginning of the End?
In Estonia, we have not yet seen mass closures of workshops. But there are embers beneath the ashes.
If:
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qualified labor is unavailable,
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existing specialists justifiably demand higher wages,
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spare parts margins shrink,
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technological access becomes expensive or restricted,
then this is not just surface turbulence. It is a structural shift.
In America, they speak of empty service bays.
In Estonia, they are not yet empty on a large scale. But I can clearly see the direction things are moving.
Everyone can draw their own conclusions about what this may mean in 10 or 20 years.
Will repairs become centralized in dealerships?
Will independent workshops become rare?
Will maintenance turn into an expensive luxury?
Will anyone in the future even know how to hold a wrench?
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I do not claim to have all the answers.
But after 27 years inside this industry, I know this: what we are witnessing is not a temporary fluctuation. It is a structural transformation.
Machines are becoming more advanced. Systems are becoming more closed. Skills are becoming rarer.
The real question is no longer whether technology will change the automotive world — it already has.
The real question is whether we will still value the people who understand how things work… and how to fix them.
Because when knowledge disappears, it does not quietly return.
And when skill becomes rare, it never becomes cheaper.
Time will give us the answer.